This study was designed to investigate the applicability of the IES/NSF pipeline-of-evidence protocol in ascertaining why two notable educational initiatives spearheaded and financially supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation achieved or not the goal of improved academic outcomes for K-12 public school students. Our interest was not whether there is a sufficient body of high quality research evidence to support the two initiatives but whether the research considered by the Gates Foundation established the likelihood that the initiatives would be successful and worth the decision to dedicate substantial funding, time, and effort required for each versus the many competing programs seeking sponsorship. We found that in the case of Intensive Partnerships for Effective Teaching, efficacy and effectiveness research were absent and the Gates foundation discontinued grant support because the initiative had not achieved the goal of improved high school graduation and college attendance among low-income minority students. In the case of Early College High School, we found empirical evidence was manifest at all but the effectiveness stage of the pipeline and the initiative continued to receive funding. Our findings support the importance of widening the net of methodologies that constitute a framework for elements needed to make predictions of effectiveness for any given intervention before investing in scale-up initiatives and the need for private foundations to be transparent in their decision-making process to enable others to scrutinize the research that informs the design of initiatives.

Research shows that children's reading proficiency levels in the early grades positively correlate with students' future academic achievement. This study provides the first-ever analysis of reading achievement trajectories for a cohort of students in grades 3 to 5 in 2014–17 in Hawaii schools. Hawaii serves a diverse student population whose characteristics differ in ways often overlooked by standard US racial and ethnic classifications. Our analysis shows that Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander students not only start at a lower reading proficiency than their peers in Grade 3, but the achievement gap widens as they move from Grade 3 to Grade 5. Moreover, we find a strong association between students' third-grade performance and reading achievement growth rate above and beyond all other factors in our longitudinal model. The difference in performance patterns between student subgroups across the elementary grades can serve as an accurate baseline for yearly monitoring. In light of our findings, we discuss implications for policy and practice.